(23 November, 2015) - El Niño is the world's biggest weather phenomenon, happening every few years when warm water collected in the western Pacific slosh back eastwards, affecting rain patterns and temperatures across the world. The last major El Niño happened in 1997-98, with weather disruptions that claimed around 21,000 lives and caused at least 35 billion US$ worth of destruction worldwide. This year, El Niño is predicted to be the strongest since records began in 1950.
El Niño will have a severe impact on access to water and food security in several of the countries where CARE works with vulnerable communities to provide emergency relief and promote positive change. Current projections from CARE’s country teams indicate that at least 24 million people are currently affected by El Niño – this number will significantly increase in the coming months. CARE is particularly concerned by the situation of women and girls, who are disproportionately affected by natural disasters.
Here is an overview of the expected impact in some of the countries where CARE is working and how we plan to assist (last updated 23.11.2015):
Ethiopia: Lower than usual rainfalls have significantly reduced the first harvest of 2015 and delayed and disrupted the main rain season and planting for the country’s primary harvest. This will increase food insecurity across drought-prone areas of the country. A total of 8.2 million people have been identified by the government to be in need of emergency food assistance. CARE is currently providing food assistance, water point rehabilitations, and livelihood support to over 300,000 people and plans to assist up to 500,000 people in the coming months.
Haiti: A drought occurred during the main agricultural production period from April to June, likely halving the agricultural production. Reduced rainfall is expected until December, jeopardizing the production of the second agricultural season as well. Corn and beans prices continue to increase, reducing the access of poorest households to food. CARE Haiti leads a large food security and social protection project in the most affected areas and is discussing plans for further response with other NGOs and the government.
India: El Niño disturbs the monsoon season, bringing more rain to some areas and less rain to others, affecting millions of poor farmers who till small plots of land to sustain their families. CARE works in central (Chhattisgarh state) and southern (Odisha state) parts of India with more than 15,000 marginalized women farmers and their households to enhance their capacity to adopt climate resilient agriculture for enhanced crop productivity, availability of alternative livelihoods options, developing local markets and ensuring women’s access to safety nets.
Indonesia: El Niño is already strongly felt with reduced rainfall and drought in some areas such as South Sumatra, Lampung, Java, Bali and South Sulawesi. Forest fires are spreading, causing life-threatening haze. At least 10 people have died and 452,377 people suffer acute respiratory infections. A total of A total of 3.7 million people are affected by the drought. CARE Indonesia is monitoring the situation in coordination with other agencies that are providing support. The Government and military are fighting the fires.
Kenya: More than usual rain is expected in most parts of the country for the rest of the year and into early 2016. Heavy rains may be beneficial, but also disastrous, depending on the level of preparedness. There is an increased risk of floods and mudslides in some areas. So far, 200,000 people have been displaced and 2,000,000 more people (including 500,000 refugees) have been affected. CARE Kenya plans to scale up a range of activities such as rehabilitating water supplies, distribute water treatment chemicals, water storage facilities, construct latrines and train health workers to prevent spread of disease, as well as specific support for pregnant and lactating women and survivors of gender-based violence.
Madagascar: Strong cyclones with heavy rains are expected, mostly in the northern part of the country. A minimum of 300,000 people will be affected by a strong cyclone in the north. There is also high risk of flooding, including in the capital city of Antananarivo. In the south of the country, a drought is ongoing. CARE Madagascar runs a project for disaster risk reduction focusing on flooding in Antananarivo, as well as having provided food support in the south.
Mozambique: 140,000 people are already experiencing insecure access to food in the more drought prone southern part of the country. They are in critical need of support. Another one million people across the country are at risk of food insecurity and water shortage in the coming months. CARE has provided water and hygiene promotion for 18,000 people, and food assistance for 13,500 people.
Niger: El Niño related weather patterns, with large pockets of drought, delayed the start of seedlings growth, significantly affecting food production in areas already plagued by chronic food insecurity. The government estimates that 3.4 million people are in need of assistance. CARE is assisting more than 500.000 people with emergency supplies.
Papua New Guinea: The government estimates 2.4 million people across the country are currently affected by extended drought and frost linked to El Niño. The highlands region – where CARE has a strong presence – have been the worst affected, with crops failing and water supplies drying up. CARE PNG is supporting the government by carrying out assessments in the areas where CARE has existing programs. Basic items such as water purification tablets, soap and buckets have been distributed to approximately 10,000 people. CARE’s target is to reach 125,000 of the affected people.
Peru: El Niño is expected to bring warmer temperature and changed patterns of precipitation in November and December, causing damage to agriculture, infrastructure, loss of fishery and spread of diseases. The most affected regions will be in Peru’s northern areas, where heavy rains are expected to be stronger than most seasons of the phenomenon. On the other hand, Peru’s southern coast (Lima) will face an extremely dry season, with temperatures reaching 35 degrees Celsius. CARE Peru is designing contingency plans for ongoing projects and programs, as well as organizing information campaigns.
Philippines: The current El Niño episode has already affected 65,000 farmers and over 32,000 hectares of rice fields. More than half of the country is likely to be affected until early 2016 by up to 85 percent less rain and, in some cases, drought. People in affected areas largely depend on rice, root crop, fruit and vegetable farming. This will decrease the supply of food especially in areas that were badly hit by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and Typhoon Koppu in October 2015, which destroyed crops ready for harvest. CARE has supported more than 318,000 people affected by Haiyan and have been working to support 288 community organizations to strengthen food security. As these efforts were hampered by Typhoon Koppu, the focus is now on the emergency response.
Somalia: While a mild to moderate El Niño will enhance rains and result in good pasture and crop development, a severe event could lead to an increased risk of flooding along the main rivers. The current projection is that between 400,000 and 900,000 people in south central and in some parts of Puntland could be affected by floods. CARE will provide immediate assistance as well as support to recover, including emergency water trucking, food for displaced people, distribution of dignity and hygiene kits, solar lamps, construction of emergency latrines and rehabilitation of shallow wells and boreholes with flood resistant design.
Timor Leste: El Niño events generally bring drier conditions and often lead to a late onset and early finish to the wet season. Historically, the most significant impact on the population during El Niño years is reduced ground water availability. In CARE Timor’s community magazine, Lafaek, basic information about El Niño and some preparedness tips have gone to print in the latest edition with expected distribution between October and December. This print medium reaches close to 45 per cent of all households in every municipality in the country.
Vanuatu: El Niño-driven drought is compounding the devastation caused by cyclone Pam in March 2015. There are reports that people can't grow food and that water is scarce. In response, CARE is targeting 21,000 individuals through distributing chickens and pigs for consumption and breading, drought resistant yams and peanut plants, and is conducting training on farming techniques that can conserve water and soil.
Zimbabwe: The last growing season was impacted by poor and erratic rainfall, resulting in sharp production losses across the region. The current forecasts are pessimistic for the early stages of the coming season from October to December. This raises the possibility of two consecutive poor cropping seasons against a backdrop of much reduced regional stocks. An estimated 1.5 million people are at risk of lacking food. CARE is responding by scaling up humanitarian assistance and resilience programming. CARE is looking at how existing and future projects can prepare for and best mitigate the potential negative effects in the coming year. The first unconditional mobile cash transfers were made first week of October, reaching more than 5,000 households across 15 districts with a target to reach 330,000 people.